Wimbledon kicks off Monday, with defending champions Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek in the field. With Carlos Alcaraz out of the tournament with injury, could Sinner pull off a repeat? Or will Novak Djokovic add that final record title to his résumé?
On the women’s side, Swiatek hasn’t looked to be in top form — and it feels wide open at the All England Club. Could Aryna Sabalenka win her first major title on grass? Or will an American such as Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff or Madison Keys take advantage of the opportunity?
We polled our experts for their picks and best betting tips.
Who is your women’s pick to win the title?
Chris Eubanks: My pick to win the women’s draw is Sabalenka. She’s No. 1 in the world. She’s been the most consistent player on tour for the past couple of years. And she’s made some changes to her game over the last year that I think will shine brightly on the grass.
When she brought in Max Mirnyi, she wanted to improve her transition game. It’s been about a year, and I think she has become much more comfortable transitioning to the net and finishing points off. That will be hugely important on the grass, and a Wimbledon title is one of the few things in the sport that she hasn’t been able to do. You got to think that lifting the trophy here is high on her priority list and she has a great opportunity to do that here.
D’Arcy Maine: This is tough. There isn’t an obvious choice here, and none of the recent front-runners have had runaway success on grass thus far this season. Swiatek lost in the opening round of her lone tuneup event on the surface in Bad Homburg. Sabalenka had a catastrophic collapse at Roland Garros in the quarterfinals and got bageled in the deciding set of the semifinals at the Berlin Open. Elena Rybakina, arguably one of the best players on grass in recent years, went 1-2 in her two tournaments on the surface. Mirra Andreeva, the newly crowned French Open champion, lost her only match on grass. As did Gauff, who has never advanced past the fourth round at the All England Club.
So all this to say: feeling confident about a prediction here might be next to impossible. I am — reluctantly — picking Sabalenka, largely based on her proven consistency at majors and because she might have a chip on her shoulder after Paris. But truly, it’s anyone’s guess here.
Bill Connelly: Well, I can’t be any more wrong than I was with my French Open picks, so let’s take a swing and go with Pegula. Her Wimbledon history is not great — she’s just 8-6 all time there, and four of those wins came in one run (2023) — but she has such a good grass-court game, and one of these years, her success on German grass could translate to the grass at the All England Club.
Her draw is pretty good (landing in the same quarter as Gauff, who has an even worse recent Wimbledon track record) and perhaps a bit of a favor since Tennis Abstract gives her the second-best odds of reaching the semis, behind only Sabalenka (46.1%), who she just beat on grass. This feels like a solid “If not now, then when?” situation for the 32-year-old.
Simon Cambers: Pass. OK, but you’re going to need to forgive me if I get this horribly wrong. This is the most open women’s singles at Wimbledon in recent memory, a feeling replicated by the odds, which has world No.1 Sabalenka a very vulnerable 4-1 favorite. While the Belarusian has had a couple of worrying defeats of late, defending champion Swiatek has a horrible draw in Week 1, and Rybakina and Gauff have both dropped off. Any of them are capable of playing well but the two players in form on grass are Pegula and Madison Keys. Of those two, Keys has the grass-court résumé, and if she can stay healthy, she could spring a shock.
Who is your men’s pick to win the title?
Eubanks: Sinner. His early round exit in Roland Garros was a massive shock to the tennis world but I don’t think we’ll see that in back-to-back Grand Slams. Before RG, Sinner was so dominant on tour that players were struggling to take sets off him. He won every big title that led into RG. Yes, the loss was disappointing, but I think that the mental exhaustion and fatigue of his dominance leading up to RG had to have played a part. Now that he’s had a little time off, I tend to think he’s recharged and ready to go and I’ll be looking for him to continue that dominance that we saw before Paris.
Maine: Even after his implosion at Roland Garros, Sinner still feels like the clear favorite to win the title. He is without his fiercest rival in Alcaraz and will likely be wanting to do everything he can to avenge his (still shocking) early exit in Paris. He has a relatively easy path into the second week, and while Daniil Medvedev could potentially play spoiler in the quarterfinals (he beat him in the same round in 2024) and Djokovic could await in the semifinals, this feels like his title to win.
Of course, as the French Open proved, Sinner’s most formidable foe might just be the elements. While London has been experiencing its own heat wave leading into the tournament, the temperatures are expected to be cooler in the first week (mostly in the high 70s) and should likely not be a factor for Sinner. They are expected to climb again in the second week, which could make things interesting, but one would have to think he and his team are doing everything they can to proactively address the issue, and he will at least be in a better position to handle it if necessary.
Connelly: We know what can happen to him in hotter conditions, but it still feels like a massive risk to pick anyone other than Sinner to win a tournament he enters. Novak Djokovic is at his most dangerous on grass, and a number of Americans — Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul — have honed solid grass-court games through the years. But it’s still Sinner vs. the field (and his body).
Cambers: With no Alcaraz, the path would seem clear for Sinner to repeat his triumph of 12 months ago. It all depends on whether the Italian has recovered, physically and mentally, from the issues that affected him last month in Paris, when he wilted in the heat. He’ll certainly be glad of relatively cooler conditions for Week 1, and there’s no reason to think he won’t prosper.
Djokovic has a good draw, on paper, but is in the same half as Sinner. In the other half, perhaps Ben Shelton could come through. The American won Stuttgart and his great serve makes him even more dangerous on grass. If it’s not Sinner, then Shelton could go close.
Betting tips
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of time of publication.
Who is your women’s pick to win?
Pamela Maldonado: Iga Swiatek (+750). The question is less about who has the best odds and more about whose path matches the demands of major grass-court matches. Swiatek’s draw is pretty manageable by Wimbledon standards. Her projected path doesn’t have her facing a true power server until deep in the tournament, and her movement and return game are good enough on grass. At her price, Swiatek’s draw minimizes her biggest weakness, which is finishing points quickly on this surface.
Andre Snellings: Any American woman (+240). Wimbledon tends to be wide open on the women’s side; there has been a unique champion every season since Serena Williams won two straight in 2015 and 2016. As such, I really like this prop because it lets you bet on several players who have a legitimate chance to win. Last year’s French Open champion, Coco Gauff (+1100), Jessica Pegula (+1200), last year’s Australian Open champion, Madison Keys (+1400), last year’s Wimbledon runner-up, Amanda Anisimova (+1300), and Emma Navarro (+6000) all have cases to be made. Even Williams (+3500) — in her return to singles after years away from competition — contributes to this group of American contenders and falls under this umbrella prop in her attempt to get to 24 Grand Slam singles titles.
Who is your men’s pick to win?
Maldonado: Novak Djokovic (+600). He has the most important thing at Wimbledon: a draw that allows him to be himself because he doesn’t have to play elite players immediately. He avoids a true title contender until the semifinal, and if Novak gets to a Wimbledon semi … history says you want exposure.
Snellings: Jannik Sinner (-165). Sinner is the odds-on favorite to defend his Wimbledon title with Carlos Alcaraz still sidelined. His second-round loss at the French Open last month was shocking and has been tied to his physical reaction to the extreme heat at that tournament. Sinner was checked out medically and has only played an exhibition since that loss, but he looked good in defeating Cam Norrie 6-3, 6-3 during a heat wave in that match. I look for him to return to form, and when he is in form, Sinner is a level above the current competition with Alcaraz away.
What’s another bet that stands out on the women’s side?
Maldonado: Elena Rybakina (+600). She’s a former Wimbledon champion, has arguably the best serve in women’s tennis outside Sabalenka, has flat groundstrokes that penetrate grass, is comfortable winning short points and doesn’t have to adapt her game to the surface because her game was essentially built for it. She’s a bit off-rhythm as of late, but WTA volatility says don’t put too much weight on that.
Snellings: Aryna Sabalenka to reach the semifinal (+180). Sabalenka is the favorite to win the tournament at +350, but you get more than half the juice of a win at plus money for her to make the semifinals. While Sabalenka has some big names in her quarter, her main competition has not had success reaching the Wimbledon semifinals. Mirra Andreeva (+350) is fresh off winning her first major at the French Open, but grass is a very different surface than clay, and Andreeva has never been past the quarterfinal at Wimbledon. Neither has Karolina Muchova (+650), who has not been past the first round at Wimbledon since 2021. Sabalenka has participated in three WImbledons since 2019, and she has made the semifinal every time.
What’s another bet that stands out on the men’s side?
Maldonado: Round 1: Marin Cilic +4.5 games vs. Daniil Medvedev. Cilic is an outstanding grass-court performer. Big-serving veterans on grass can create a lot of competitive losses. Medvedev might have the better current overall form, but Cilic’s serve is still good to force at least for a tiebreak or a four-set match if not even win. The veteran serve will make Medvedev sweat every game.
Snellings: Taylor Fritz to make the semifinal (+350). Fritz is the sixth seed at Wimbledon, and he is in the same quarter with No. 2 Alexander Zverev (+200 to win the quarter), Jack Draper (+550) and Francis Tiafoe (+650). Fritz has dominated his head-to-head clashes with Zverev of late, winning seven straight matchups including their most recent meeting this month on grass in the semifinals of the Halle Open. Fritz also won their only grass matchup at a major, at Wimbledon 2024 in the round of 16. Fritz’s big serve and surprising mobility given his size serve him well on grass. He made the Wimbledon final last year and has been in at least the quarterfinals in three of the past four years.
Who’s your favorite long shot bet to win the women’s title?
Maldonado: Naomi Osaka 30-1. If you want a degenerate “what if” lottery ticket, Osaka is it. Four years ago, she would be the favorite. Grass rewards her first-strike style, her current form is stellar making the Homburg Final, her serve is back and her percentage of first serve points is 80-plus, which is a magic number on grass. Osaka can fail to be the better tennis player in her matches, but if she’s the better server, that can get her far.
Snellings: Donna Vekic to win (+4000). Vekic enters Wimbledon on a high note after having won the Queen’s Club Championship on grass in the leadup to the major. Vekic has made six finals on grass in her career and made the semifinal at Wimbledon in 2024. Her game seems to be peaking at an opportune time, particularly with many of the favorites having patchy results on grass this season.
Who’s your favorite long shot bet to win the men’s title?
Maldonado: Taylor Fritz (+2000). I expect him to get past Jack Draper in the first-round popcorn match, which could be the clash of the tournament. It won’t be easy, but if Fritz does survive, he has the elite serve, comfortable winning tiebreaks, has proven ability to win ugly and has no obvious weakness that gets amplified on grass. Fritz wins matches where the margins are tiny, and for a long shot, that bodes well. Beat Draper, beat potentially Tiafoe/Cerundolo and suddenly, you’re holding a semifinal ticket on arguably the best server remaining in the bottom half.
Snellings: Francis Tiafoe (+4000). Tiafoe has a history of putting together surprising runs in majors. He made the quarterfinals of the French Open last year, and in the three years before that, he made the semifinals at the US Open twice. In fact, he has made at least the quarterfinal in every major except Wimbledon, where his best result was a fourth-round finish in 2022. But Tiafoe is playing particularly well on grass this season with a 7-1 record, including winning the championship at Halle by defeating Taylor Fritz in the final. When his game is locked in, Tiafoe can be a tough out on any surface.
