U.S. President Donald Trump sits at a table monitoring military operations during Operation Epic Fury against Iran, with U.S. flags visible behind him, in Washington, United States, on March 2, 2026.
The White House via X | Anadolu | Getty Images
Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Less than 24 hours after I wrote that peace could be on the horizon, Washington and Tehran were back exchanging fire. Predicting the trajectory of this conflict is beginning to feel like a roulette with missiles.
So the question now is simple: Who shot first?
What you need to know today
The stop-start nature of the Iran war means that any attempt to project the conflict’s trajectory usually ends in failure.
On Thursday, the U.S. and Iran opened fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of initiating the attack.
Besides the escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran remained intact, even as he claimed the U.S. had “completely destroyed” the Iranians involved in the exchange.
Iran, meanwhile, said U.S. forces targeted an Iranian tanker traveling from its coastal waters toward the strait.
Ceasefire or not, the renewed tensions continue to disrupt one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned investors that the oil market is facing a shortage of 1 billion barrels of oil, and this will only worsen every day the conflict drags on.
Oil prices slipped Thursday before rebounding in early Friday trading in Asia. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 2.29% to $102.35 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2.09% to $96.79 per barrel.
Other commodities are also back in focus. Market watchers told CNBC that the rallies in gold and silver, which happened at the start of the year before cooling, could regain momentum if a U.S.-Iran peace settlement is reached.
Markets also pulled back from their recent enthusiasm. The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, dragged lower by losses in Amazon, as well as semiconductor stocks such as Broadcom and Micron Technology.
Investors also soured on Cloudflare, with shares tumbling 18% after the company announced plans to cut one-fifth of its workforce.
Cloudflare said agentic artificial intelligence has “fundamentally changed” the company’s work, adding that some positions “just aren’t the roles that we need for the future.”
Ceasefire or not, the Strait of Hormuz increasingly resembles less like diplomacy and more like a bar fight where nobody remembers who threw the first punch. Financial markets, unfortunately, do remember who pays for the broken furniture.
And finally…
France has emerged as a clear fan favorite for this year’s FIFA World Cup in North America, according to a Bank of America survey.
Roughly 40% of fans surveyed by BofA are betting on another World Cup win for Les Bleus this summer, with France and Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé expected to be the “golden boot” winner as the tournament’s top scorer.
However, but Microsoft’s Copilot artificial intelligence tool is backing another champion, saying Spain is equally likely to lift the trophy.
