Thursday briefing: ​Why the US president is losing support from crucial allies | US-Israel war on Iran

Good morning. Starting a war of choice that is rapidly spiralling out of control, poll ratings at a second-term low, and a cost of living crisis intensifying for millions.

Any conventional US president would be in big trouble. But Donald Trump is not a conventional president, and normal rules do not seem to apply to him. More than a third of Americans continue to believe he is doing a good job despite the global chaos he has unleashed.

Even so, cracks have started to appear in the Maga base: the influential former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has become the latest high-profile Republican to express his regret for cheerleading Trump, admitting he is “tormented” by his prior support.

For today’s First Edition, I spoke with Guardian US live news editor Chris Michael about how the fallout from the conflict with Iran has affected the domestic fortunes of the US president. But first, the headlines.

Five big stories

1. UK politics | Keir Starmer was looking increasingly isolated over the Peter Mandelson scandal as the Guardian learned of concerns around the cabinet table, a senior minister refused to say the dismissal of Olly Robbins was fair and several mandarins called for Robbins to be reinstated. One Labour MP called on Starmer to quit.

2. Middle East | Iranian forces seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.

3. West Bank | Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school, witnesses and local officials said. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a journalist after rescuers were blocked from accessing the building where she was buried under rubble because of further Israeli fire, according to several witnesses.

4. UK news | Britain’s high military dependence on the US is “no longer tenable” and the UK has to become increasingly independent of the special relationship, a former Nato chief has said.

5. Palantir | The Metropolitan police has held talks with Palantir that could lead to the London force buying the US spy-tech company’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis for criminal investigations.

In depth: ‘Trump campaigned on the cost of living and did nothing about it after he won’

Donald Trump is an unpopular US president. In the wake of the US-Israel attacks on Iran, his favourability has reached a level comparable to the aftermath of the 6 January 2021 US Capitol attack. A series of recent polls puts his approval rating in the mid-30s, driven down by the economic fallout from the war that has worsened a cost of living crisis for millions of struggling Americans.

Chris Michael says the rise in fuel prices has been a crucial issue for voters, who were promised falls in the cost of filling up their cars and trucks by Trump ahead of the election.

“People are not really thinking about Iranians being killed – obviously some are – but they are really bothered about gas prices, and the Trump administration’s messaging on that has been terrible,” says Chris. “The energy secretary Chris Wright said it wouldn’t be until next year that we would see gas back down to $3 a gallon. It’s currently around $4, so it’s up 25%. That has a direct impact on everyone in the US.

“Trump campaigned on the cost of living and has basically done nothing about it after he won. To make matters worse, he has started a war that has driven up energy prices and been quite dismissive about it.”

Tucker’s ‘torment’

In Trump’s apparent moment of weakness, critics are feeling emboldened. Tucker Carlson recently apologised for supporting Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, claiming he will be “tormented” for a long time over the decision. (Some observers even say this is a sign Carlson might be distancing himself ahead of a presidential run to replace Trump in 2028.)

Carlson is not alone. From Joe Rogan to Megyn Kelly, other former Trump supporters in the media are expressing their anger at the fighting in the Middle East and his administration.

“The hardcore America First people are turning against Trump. They can smell something in the wind and Iran is a big part of that. They firmly believe that you shouldn’t get involved in foreign wars. The fringe right of the Maga movement has had enough of Trump,” says Chris.

Seeds of doubt

Conspiracy theorists in the Maga movement have also started to turn their attention to the US president. Almost two years ago, Donald Trump was nearly assassinated during a campaign rally when a bullet clipped his ear but he was largely unharmed. Afterwards, he stood, defiant with his fist raised, as blood dripped down his face, telling the crowd to “fight”. It was a key moment for Trump in the 2024 election.

But now, some in the Maga base are questioning whether it was staged – among them, comedian Tim Dillon, a prominent Trump supporter. In normal circumstances this would just be another conspiracy theory on the internet, but it is gaining traction online, says Chris.

“Trump encouraged all this stuff and rode the wave of conspiratorial thinking. If you live by the sword, you die by the sword, and now it’s turned on him a little bit. It stems from Epstein, which is seen as a real moral failure for Maga. For a lot of Trump voters, the protection of women and girls is a key value.”

A cornered animal

With just six months to go before the midterm elections, Trump and the Republican party’s political fortunes appear bleak. The Democrats could win back control of both Congress and the Senate, restricting the US leader’s ability to govern and opening the door to future impeachments. With the exception of the “big, beautiful bill”, Trump has largely ruled by executive order. But heavy losses in the midterms would still restrict the president in his final years in office.

“He can certainly carry on with his executive orders but they don’t work well. His signature tariff policy was overturned by the supreme court. He has made very little attempt to get Congress to do much. If the Dems win the House, even less legislation will get passed. They can set up any number of investigations and subcommittees into corruption in the White House, which is a huge issue,” says Chris.

“That will be more bad press for him. It will contribute to an atmosphere of Trump starting to look weak and cornered. But a cornered animal is a dangerous animal.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Emine Saner interviews New York Times investigative journalist Jodi Kantor, who exposed allegations against Harvey Weinstein and Amazon’s work practices – and has now set her mind to helping young people find their life’s work. Martin

• The London marathon runners doing the race in fancy dress are the real heroes, just like my colleague Patrick Barkham, who will be dressed as a badger. He has interviewed other fancy dress runners about what to expect. Patrick

• Daniel Engber goes out on a limb for the Atlantic and describes the current mania over missing US scientists as – in a strong field – the single dumbest conspiracy theory of 2026. Martin

• I was fascinated by this feature on Iran’s Jewish community and how they are coping with the attacks from Israel and the US. Patrick

• Expanded tournaments have left many nations in men’s football believing European championship qualifying has gone stale. An exclusive from Nick Ames suggests Uefa may be on the verge of revamping the system. Martin

Sport

Football | Manchester City leapfrogged Arsenal to go top of the table as Erling Haaland’s goal in the 1-0 win against Burnley relegated the Clarets. Leeds drew 2-2 with Bournemouth.

Football | Chelsea sacked Liam Rosenior after a dreadful run of form saw the head coach lose the support of the dressing room. Rosenior has departed three months into a six-and-a-half-year deal and leaves with his side in danger of missing out on European football.

Snooker | Ronnie O’Sullivan dusted off an old cue from under his bed in Ireland and duly rocketed into the second round of the World Snooker Championship in Sheffield after wrapping up a 10-2 win over He Guoqiang.

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