Key events
*Sabalenka 2-1 Svitolina Sabalenka storms to 40-0, a backhand winner, thunked down the line when off balance, the the highlight. Her ability to hit winners from anywhere is like nothing we’ve seen before in the women’s game, and the hold is secured to 15.
Sabalenka 1-1 Svitolina* But while she’s staying patient in pursuit of the break, can Svitolina hold? Sabalenka dominates the first rally of the game, but it’s quickly 15-all, then a netted return is followed by a tame double for 30-all. And from there, Svitolina closes out, the point which secures it a prototype of sorts, blocking back the power then responding well to a drop with a precise pick-up to the corner.
*Sabalenka 1-0 Svitolina (*denotes server) A forehand winner down the line and Svitolina is into the match; she needed that because even if Sabalenka holds, she’s unlikely to win this match from behind. And when Sabalenka tries a drop, she races in … only to flick her riposte long, a missed opportunity. But she does make 15-30 and, when an inside-out backhand falls wide, has two break points; early drama coming up. An inside-out forehand that breaks the sideline confiscates the first, then a sensational backhand angle, from the corner flying flat and acute cross-court to again break the sideline for a winner does likewise with the second. Svitolina knows there are going to be plenty of those, those being ludicrous winners only Sabalenka can hit, and that she has to stay patient; from deuce, the hold is secured.
Sabalenka to serve, ready … play.
You can’t argue with Svitolina’s run to the last four. She’s beaten Shnaider, Andreeva and Gauff – who, admittedly, had her absolute worst day – without losing a set, won in Auckland before that, and won’t ever have felt better about her game. I’m excited to see what her plan is, because we can be sure she’ll have one.
Here come our players. Svitolina looks nervous, Sabalenka businesslike.
These two have played six times, Sabalenka winning five; Svitolina’s win came on clay, in 2020.
Chances are, Sabalenka takes it in two, however well Svitolina plays. But we’ve all seen her break or melt down and, though it happens far less often these days, when you know it’s in you, you know the possibility exists.
There are, more or less, two ways of beating Sabalenka: the Wawrinka approach, used to beat Djokovic and Nadal in grand slam finals, which involves going for everything, or keeping the ball in play and waiting for errors or the chance to hit winners. I don’t think Svitolina has the power or flow to take the first option, so it’ll have to be the second, but aggressively pursued.
Why don’t the people love me?
🗣 “I find it a little bit disrespectful!”
Novak Djokovic took issue with a reporter’s question about him “chasing” Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/ox7CrrtpJQ
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 28, 2026
Svitolina, meanwhile, morphed into a different player after giving birth and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fired with all the love and hope now she’s competing for others as well as herself. She’ll need to serve well, and off the ground, keep Sabalenka moving – not just side to side, but forward and backwards. If she can, then she’s a chance, but it’ll take the match of her life.
I say Keys suddenly decided she could win, but actually, there was nothing sudden about it. Rather, it was the culmination of years of defeats, no-shows and collapses, prompting soul-searching, coach-changes and the terror of unfulfilled potential. The change was sudden, but the process was painstaking.
Preamble
G’day and welcome to the Australian Open 2026 – day 12!
It’s not often you wake up on a dingy and cold winter’s morning mentally rubbing your hands together but, indubitably, this is one such occasion.
In our first match, Elina Svitolina is the latest to try and solve the hard-court conundrum of Aryna Sabalenka. The champion here in 2023 and 2024, having also won the last two US Opens, she has – so far – been the best player in either draw, marching into the last four without losing a set.
Last year, Sabalenka was beaten in the final by Madison Keys – and by destiny, facing an opponent who, after years of losing when it really counted, suddenly decided she could win. But Keys is one of few able to match the world no 1 for clean-hitting power; if Svitolina is to prevail, that will need turning against her though clever use of angles and spins. It’ll take the performance of a lifetime to turn possibility into reality, but her form suggests it’s in her, if she can only find it.
Our second semi-final features a not-dissimilar contest, Jess Pegula looking to mitigate her lacking power and athleticism with desire, consistency and renewed belief that is almost religious. Still improving at 31, like Keys last year she has a sense that, for the first time, her game is in good enough shape to beat the best players on the biggest occasions.
Elena Rybakina, though, is also in terrific nick, having won the year-end WTA finals and begun this season in similar vein. Her joyously uncomplicated thwacking is a delight to behold, a product of long levers and glorious timing, but Pegula might just’ve conjured a way to respond, her anticipation and speed allowing her to block back balls into demanding areas, thinking her way around the court just as Svitolina has to.
Or, in other words, this is going to be great. Let’s go!
