Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised … if OF Andy Pages continues to lead all Los Angeles Dodgers hitters in fantasy points
The two-time, defending World Series champion Dodgers again boast one of the top lineups in baseball, averaging five runs per game. What is interesting about the Dodgers’ offense, with roughly a quarter of the long season completed, is that it’s not top fantasy picks DH Shohei Ohtani, OF Kyle Tucker, 1B Freddie Freeman or SS Mookie Betts who are scoring the most fantasy points among L.A. batsmen. Pages, 25, in his third season and coming off a postseason in which he struggled so much (4-for-41!) that he was benched, is among the top 15 hitters in fantasy baseball. No, really.
Pages entered Wednesday batting .318/.363/.545 with nine home runs, 35 RBIs and six stolen bases (on pace for 35-135-24), achieving fantasy glory despite being mostly a draft-day afterthought and spending much of his time hitting in the bottom third of the team’s lofty lineup. Pages averaged 2.2 fantasy points per game one season ago, when he hit an understated .272/.313/.461 with 27 home runs, 86 RBIs and 14 steals. He finished tied with Seattle Mariners OF Randy Arozarena for No. 66 among hitters in fantasy points. Arozarena went at pick No. 101 in our final March points mock draft. Pages was the final pick at No. 190.
This entire premise may seem illogical because Ohtani, the recognized No. 1 pick in fantasy baseball drafts, has outscored everyone this season. However, for the first time, he is far more valuable as a pitcher. In fact, on ESPN’s Player Rater, measuring roto/categories scoring, Ohtani is the No. 27 starting pitcher — down from what you may think because of low volume, but still excellent. However, he is only the No. 49 hitter, behind Cleveland Guardians SS Brayan Rocchio, St. Louis Cardinals 1B Alec Burleson and teammates Pages (No. 6) and 3B Max Muncy (No. 40).
Winner of three consecutive MVP awards, Ohtani hit .296 the past two seasons and averaged 54.5 home runs, 116 RBIs, 40 stolen bases and 140 runs. He broke a 4-for-36 slump with an opposite field home run on Tuesday, but he is hitting a disappointing .240 and on pace for only 24 home runs, 63 RBIs and 19 steals. He is out of the batting lineup on his pitching days and, with his “ordinary” batting stats, this may become more common — especially with enticing backup C Dalton Rushing in dire need of more plate appearances.
Ultimately, the uber-talented Ohtani will improve his hitting numbers over the next four months, though he seems to be all about earning his first Cy Young Award. Narratives matter, so Ohtani may get it, too. He remains the most valuable fantasy asset, especially in ESPN leagues and even over New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge, because he is the only one providing both hitting and pitching stats, but let’s just say we all expected better hitting numbers than Rocchio, Burleson and all other Dodgers.
Meanwhile, Tucker, the premium free agent signing and first-round fantasy selection, has been a huge disappointment, batting a mere .253 and on pace for only 16 home runs and 12 steals. If we were redrafting, Tucker would not be a top-50 pick. Neither is Freeman, 36, as he is finally acting his age, slugging only .436 and on pace for 16 home runs and only 59 runs. Betts just returned from an oblique injury, after producing a mere .732 OPS last season. Everyone spends so much time discussing the vaunted top of the Dodgers’ lineup but … what if the top scorer is the one who, even lately, still hits seventh quite a bit?
The Dodgers are going to be fine. They will win the NL West and perhaps their third consecutive World Series. Perhaps Ohtani wins the NL Cy Young Award and further awards in the postseason. Perhaps Tucker, Freeman and Betts all significantly turn their seasons around, too. Why aren’t we talking more about Pages and a rejuvenated Muncy, for that matter? They are carrying this offense. Why can’t they keep doing so?
Don’t be surprised … if Chicago White Sox 3B/1B Miguel Vargas remains a top-20 fantasy hitter
Vargas, the former Dodgers prospect who was jettisoned in July 2024 in the three-team Tommy Edman trade, hit .234/.316/.401 for last season’s White Sox, with 16 home runs and a team-leading 80 runs scored. Those weren’t notable numbers for fantasy, though. Japanese import Munetaka Murakami was the lone White Sox hitter selected in most March drafts on ESPN — and for good reason. Murakami hadn’t yet struggled at the MLB level. His upside seemed worth a midround risk (certainly more than Vargas) and Murakami is currently among the league’s HR leaders, on pace for 61 blasts.
However, the rather overlooked Vargas still boasts more fantasy points and here’s why: He strikes out less than half the number of times that Murakami does, while still providing power, walks and adding stolen bases. It all matters. Murakami leads the majors in strikeouts and that offsets some of the power and walks. Vargas is just outside the top 10 scorers among fantasy hitters. Let’s just say the others in his scoring proximity are rostered in at least 90% of ESPN standard leagues. Vargas is at only 66.4%.
OK, so this fellow may never win a batting title (his career MLB batting average is .207), but this current version certainly has value. Vargas, 26, entered Wednesday with 29 walks and 28 strikeouts, his 16.5% walk rate among the leaders. Vargas showed power in the minors and it appears to finally be translating at the MLB level. He is on pace for 36 home runs and 24 steals, with 113 walks and 111 strikeouts. No other player is in this range. Power hitters generally strike out more. Vargas is unique.
Fantasy managers may wonder if these numbers are sustainable and that’s a fair thing to consider. The White Sox aren’t winning the AL Central, but their offense is roughly league average, which is a huge improvement over last season. Murakami is a legit power hitter — a Kyle Schwarber-esque, three-true-outcomes hitter. SS Colson Montgomery may never hit for average himself, but he sure looks like a 30-HR option. Scrappy IFs Chase Meidroth and Sam Antonacci get on base. Don’t avoid the White Sox offense. Vargas generally hits third. He is their most valuable fantasy asset.
Don’t be surprised … if Atlanta Braves RHP Bryce Elder is a legitimate top-20 fantasy starting pitcher
Elder, a surprise NL All-Star in 2023, tallied an atrocious 5.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 19.3% strikeout rate last season. Let’s just say he wasn’t really on the radar for potential investment this season. The Braves, a relative juggernaut who should win the NL East easily, are thriving despite losing several key starters to injury. Elder wasn’t supposed to be part of the plan. Instead, he and LHP teammate Chris Sale are both among the top 10 fantasy starters this season.
Elder entered play on Wednesday leading the NL with a 1.81 ERA ahead of this weekend’s outing against the Boston Red Sox and with many of his numbers looking legitimate. I know, it seems wild, but it’s happening!
In fairness, Elder, 26, showed improvement late last season when he tallied a 3.40 ERA over the final two months, hurling seven innings in five of his final nine outings. Since lowering the arm slot on his signature slider, which hitters used to enjoy nearly as much as a below-average, 92 mph fastball, hitters aren’t adjusting. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .130/.246/.236 line. That’s certainly not sustainable with a .155 BABIP, but some of this improvement is real. He hasn’t permitted a home run to a right-handed hitter.
Elder shouldn’t be winning an ERA title (not over the likes of Paul Skenes or Ohtani, who lowered his ERA to 0.82 with seven more shutout innings last night), so expect some regression, but even his 3.10 FIP is among the top 20 for starters. There is no reason for him to lose a rotation spot soon, either. Elder has been consistent all season, yet to permit more than three earned runs in any start. Sale and RHP Spencer Strider boast superior stuff, but Elder has been Atlanta’s top starter, earning 1.3 fWAR. I wouldn’t necessarily trade for him as if he is a lock as a top-20 starter, but seeing as he remains available in 15% of ESPN standard leagues, it seems some still do not believe in him.
