A new study of frontier models on Kalshi and Polymarket finds consistent losses, even as early signs suggest more autonomous systems could eventually outperform human bettors.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have roared into the public consciousness, drawing scrutiny from regulators and politicians. They’ve also captured the imagination of social media users, some of whom post outlandish claims of striking it rich by pointing AI models at prediction markets and making bank.
