After a change at head coach and an offseason spending spree, the New England Patriots found a way to go from 13 losses to the Super Bowl. Quarterback Drake Maye took a major step forward in Year 2 and finished as the MVP runner-up, while Mike Vrabel won NFL Coach of the Year. However, there’s no getting around the fact that New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL, and faced a backup QB in the conference championship game. The Patriots are expected to lose more than three games in 2026, but how many more?
The Buffalo Bills again came up short in the postseason, and a 33-30 overtime loss to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round led to the surprising firing of coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo is actually the fourth team in NFL history to win a playoff game in six straight seasons. The other three teams all won THREE titles. The Bills don’t have a single one. It’s up to Joe Brady to get this team over the hump.
As for the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, they again posted losing seasons in 2025. But there are reasons to be optimistic about both franchises. The Jets completely revamped their roster this offseason, especially when it comes to the defensive side of the ball, and the Dolphins have a new quarterback in Malik Willis. He was electric in limited action with the Green Bay Packers, so what can he bring to this organization?
Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule has been released, we can really start to break down the league. Let’s dissect the 2026 win totals for each AFC East team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
The Bills have won at least 11 games every year since 2020, but decided to make the controversial decision to fire their coach and promote offensive coordinator Joe Brady after an overtime loss in the divisional round this past season. The standard is the standard in Buffalo. It’s Super Bowl or bust for this team.
On one hand, the Bills’ chief rival in the Patriots are expected to regress this upcoming season after winning the AFC last year. Plus, Buffalo gifted Josh Allen a new proven weapon in DJ Moore. On the other, the Bills have a top 10 toughest schedule if you consider last year’s combined win percentage from upcoming opponents. Still, the Bills are -130 to win the division, and a whopping -320 to make the playoffs straight up. Keep an eye on how the Bills start this season. They open up the year at the Houston Texans, vs. the Detroit Lions, vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, vs. the Patriots and at the Los Angeles Rams. That’s a tough stretch right off the bat, but I have the Bills getting to at least 11-6 and winning the division.
Verdict: Over 10.5
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 4.5 (-110)
The Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have the lowest preseason win totals this season at 4.5, and two of the toughest schedules in the NFL as well. The Dolphins are beginning anew with a new coach, general manager and quarterback in Malik Willis. The former third-round pick out of Liberty flashed with the Packers, but how will he look in this new system with less talent around him? De’Von Achane is a stud, but Willis’ wide receiver room is headlined by Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. Furthermore, take a gander at the defensive depth chart for the Dolphins. I would say it’s concerning — on paper. Maybe Jeff Hafley can get the most out of his new players, but I’m not taking the Over on this win total.
Verdict: Under 4.5
New England Patriots: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +125, Under -150)
Two things can be true: You can be a fan of Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel’s defense, while also agreeing that the Patriots are poised to take a step backward in 2026. New England is set to play the sixth-toughest strength of schedule after playing the easiest slate since the turn of the millennium, and have the toughest Weeks 1-4 strength of schedule entering a season by any team in 40 YEARS, according to CBS Sports Research. There’s a Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks to start the year, then the Pittsburgh Steelers in New England Week 2, followed by back-to-back road games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Bills. All four teams made the playoffs last year.
What was the Patriots’ best win last season? The Bills in Week 5? Maybe the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16? They weren’t even a playoff team in 2025. Then there’s the Vrabel factor. He would like to move past “Russinigate,” but I do wonder how the whole scandal is being handled in the Patriots’ building. I will be leaning toward the Under for New England in 2026.
Verdict: Under 10.5
New York Jets: Over/Under 5.5 (Over -120, Under 5.5)
Could the New York Jets double their win total in 2026? It’s possible. If we were to list the most improved teams from this offseason, the Jets should be included. New York completely revamped its defense by adding new starters like David Bailey, T’Vondre Sweat, Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, plus the Jets have a new quarterback in Geno Smith. It’s true Smith struggled mightily with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025, but I would argue he’s actually an upgrade for the Jets considering the offensive line and weaponry/wide receivers now at his disposal. There was no Garrett Wilson in Sin City, and Brock Bowers was fighting through a knee injury all year. I say the Jets reach six wins this upcoming season. The question is will that be enough for Aaron Glenn to keep his job?
Verdict: Over 5.5
Odds to win the AFC East in 2026
|
Buffalo Bills |
-130 |
|
New England Patriots |
+130 |
|
New York Jets |
+1800 |
|
Miami Dolphins |
+3500 |
