Increases in air fares for travellers in Europe are “inevitable” over the peak summer period because of the high cost of jet fuel, according to the head of the international aviation body.
While some airlines faced with weak demand have reduced their European fares recently, Willie Walsh, the former British Airways boss who leads the International Air Transport Association, said there was no way carriers could absorb the extra costs in the long run.
He told the BBC there was no need to panic over potential jet fuel shortages this summer, and believes that widespread cancellations of flights can be avoided. But he warned rising fuel prices would inevitably push up ticket prices.
Even if the strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, the impact of disruption caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran could still be felt into next year, he said. Iran’s effective closure of the strait, a key shipping route, has sent the cost of jet fuel soaring.
“Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices,” Walsh said.
“I think the major problem facing the UK is timing,” he added. “You normally expect to see a 25% increase in flights and fuel requirements in the months of July and August versus, let’s say March.
“I think the concern will be that if sufficient alternative supply isn’t sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period.”
Some long-haul flights have already risen in price.
The UK and the rest of Europe are highly reliant on imports of jet fuel from the Middle East, and have been scrambling to find alternative supplies.
Last week, the EU said there was no regulatory reason why US-grade jet fuel should not be used by European airlines, as long as its introduction was managed carefully.
This week the EU’s energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, said while there was no immediate threat to jet fuel supplies, there could be shortages in the longer term.
The chief executive of the travel operator Tui, Sebastian Ebel, said he did not expect shortages over the coming months.
The UK’s transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, said earlier in May that summer holiday plans would not face major disruption because of shortages. She said more fuel had been imported from America, and UK refineries had increased production.
The government has also introduced a temporary rule change, allowing airlines to group passengers from different flights together on fewer planes to save fuel.
But Walsh warned fuel shortages could continue into 2027. “Whichever way you look at it, I think this issue will continue for a number of months to come, and may indeed continue into next year,” he said.
Airlines have axed 296 departures from UK airports this month, equivalent to 0.75% of the total, according to Aviation analytics company Cirium, as of Tuesday.
Separately, the Home Office announced that children aged eight and nine returning to the UK from abroad would be able to use e-gates at airports and other re-entry points, from 8 July. They need to be at least 120cm (3ft 11in) tall and must be accompanied by an adult.
By lowering the minimum age from 10, the government believes up to 1.5 million more children will be able to use e-gates.
