Tale of the tape: Paul v Joshua
Here’s a look at how Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua measure up ahead of tonight’s main event. The true chasm here is not age but class: a two-time unified heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist facing a 13-fight novice whose professional career has unfolded largely against retired MMA champions, fellow influencers and long-faded ex-champions in Julio César Chávez Jr, and last year’s made-for-Netflix bout against a 58-year-old Mike Tyson that drew enormous viewership and equal parts fascination and revulsion.
Joshua, 36, came in at 243.4lb at Thursday’s weigh-in, nearly 30lb heavier than Paul, who tipped the scales at 216.6lb. The difference is enough to place the bout in a category boxing traditionally treats with suspicion, if not outright refusal. Joshua was contractually obliged to weigh no more than 245lb, a stipulation that did little to allay safety concerns voiced throughout fight week.
The fight will be contested with 10oz gloves, standard issue at heavyweight but a notable detail given the disparity in size and experience. Physically, Joshua holds clear advantages in power, reach and pedigree, forged across 13 world title bouts and more than a decade at the sport’s highest level. Paul, 28, has boxed above the cruiserweight limit just once before, and enters as an overwhelming underdog despite the global platform he brings with him.
Key events
Joshua and Paul will be making their ringwalks any moment now. In the meantime here’s our ringside report off tonight’s four women’s title fights.
Alycia Baumgardner retains unified 130lb title
Alycia Baumgardner (17-1, 7 KOs), one of women’s boxing’s biggest stars, has successfully defended her WBO, IBF and WBA junior lightweight titles with a unanimous decision over Leila Beaudoin in a contest held under men’s championship rules with 12 rounds of three minutes each. The Ohio native, who rose to prominence by stopping Terri Harper in 2021 before unifying all four belts to become the undisputed champion in 2023, repeatedly punished Beaudoin with body shots, finally dropping her with a right hook to the temple at the bell ending the seventh round.
Beaudoin (13-2, 2 KOs), a one-time downhill skier from Canada who took up boxing as part of her cardio training and turned professional in 2019, showed durability and ambition but was outclassed by Baumgardner’s movement and power, particularly in the later rounds as her visible frustration mounted. The judges’ scores of 117-110 (twice) and 118-109 squared with the action.
“I give myself an A-plus,” said Baumgardner, who outlanded her opponent by a 158-98 margin according to Compubox’s punch statistics.
The Kaseya Center is filling up nicely as Alycia Baumgardner and Leila Beaudoin move into the back end of their scheduled 12-rounder. There are a few pockets of empty seats in the upper and lower bowls, but it should be pretty close to a sellout in the end.
Down in the high-rent district, a small army of celebrities and influencers have started occupying the ringside seats as the main event draws closer. Among the more notable … the five-time major champion Rory McIlroy, fresh off last night’s Spoty gong across the pond.
Despite the gulf in size, experience and pedigree, sportsbooks have reported heavy action backing Paul as a longshot at the Kaseya Center. At DraftKings, Joshua remains a dominant favorite, but roughly 86% of the money wagered on the fight winner has landed on Paul at odds around +700. The interest is not casual. Bettors are leaning hard into the possibility of an upset.
That sentiment is even clearer in the prop markets. The most popular method-of-victory wager at DraftKings is Paul winning by decision or technical decision, accounting for nearly a third of the action. Paul by knockout or technical knockout has also drawn significant interest, attracting close to a quarter of all prop bets despite long odds. Joshua, by contrast, remains the widely expected winner, but not the speculative one.
BetMGM has seen a similar pattern. Early Friday, Paul drew more than 80% of the money on the outright result at odds near +550, prompting books to adjust throughout the day. By the afternoon, Paul’s price drifted longer while Joshua’s shortened further, even as the volume of wagers backing Paul remained high. Paul by KO, TKO or disqualification emerged as the most-bet outcome prop at that sportsbook.
The betting enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to the physical realities of the matchup. Joshua, 36, is a former two-time unified heavyweight champion with Olympic gold on his résumé and a 30lb weight advantage over Paul. He enters the bout having won three of his past four fights, though he has not competed since being stopped by Daniel Dubois in September 2024.
Most ominous for Paul, Drake appears to have placed a $200,000 wager on the YouTuber-turned-boxer for a potential $1,640,000 payout. The so-called Drake Curse has been blamed for a long string of losses over the past few years. During the 2024 Copa América, he lost $300,000 when Canada fell to Argentina in the semi-finals, a gamble that would have paid nearly $2.9m. Argentina twisted the knife afterward by posting “Not like us” – the title of a Kendrick Lamar diss track aimed at the Canadian rapper – in a cheeky nod to their rival’s misfortune.
Anderson Silva has just stopped Tyron Woodley in the second round of their scheduled six-round cruiserweight bout. The 50-year-old Brazilian dropped his opponent with a flush right uppercut followed by a flurry of punches midway through the frame. Woodley beat the count, the referee determined (correctly) he was unfit to continue and waved it off at the 1:33 mark.
Next up: Alycia Baumgardner defends her WBO, IBF and WBA women’s junior lightweight titles in a scheduled 12-round fight. After that: Jake Paul v Anthony Joshua.
Tale of the tape: Paul v Joshua
Here’s a look at how Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua measure up ahead of tonight’s main event. The true chasm here is not age but class: a two-time unified heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist facing a 13-fight novice whose professional career has unfolded largely against retired MMA champions, fellow influencers and long-faded ex-champions in Julio César Chávez Jr, and last year’s made-for-Netflix bout against a 58-year-old Mike Tyson that drew enormous viewership and equal parts fascination and revulsion.
Joshua, 36, came in at 243.4lb at Thursday’s weigh-in, nearly 30lb heavier than Paul, who tipped the scales at 216.6lb. The difference is enough to place the bout in a category boxing traditionally treats with suspicion, if not outright refusal. Joshua was contractually obliged to weigh no more than 245lb, a stipulation that did little to allay safety concerns voiced throughout fight week.
The fight will be contested with 10oz gloves, standard issue at heavyweight but a notable detail given the disparity in size and experience. Physically, Joshua holds clear advantages in power, reach and pedigree, forged across 13 world title bouts and more than a decade at the sport’s highest level. Paul, 28, has boxed above the cruiserweight limit just once before, and enters as an overwhelming underdog despite the global platform he brings with him.
Jahmal Harvey has just won a lopsided six-round unanimous decision over Kevin Cervantes in the first televised undercard bout. The US Olympian and amateur world champion from Oxon Hill, Maryland, scored a knockdown and won going away by 60-53 on all three scorecards, improving to 2-0 in the paying ranks. That leaves two more preliminary fights before the main event.
Meanwhile, Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua have arrived.
The televised portion of the undercard has just kicked off with US Olympian and amateur world champion Jahmal Harvey set to face Los Angeles–based prospect Kevin Cervantes in a six-round junior lightweight fight.
As we count down the minutes to tonight’s main event, it’s worth taking a step back from the spectacle and asking a more basic question: should this fight exist at all?
In a searing column for the Guardian, our Sean Ingle places Paul v Joshua in a longer, darker boxing tradition: one where novelty, money and governing bodies’ willingness to look the other way have often come at a cost. Drawing on the ‘Bum of the Month’ era of Joe Louis, Sean argues that this bout goes beyond the usual carnival excess and into something more corrosive.
The argument is that Joshua is helping tear up boxing’s unspoken social contract: the idea that fighters knowingly accept risk within a framework of relative competitive legitimacy. Whether the fight ends quickly, drags on or produces something stranger, Sean offers a clear articulation of why so many within the sport are uneasy and why “just don’t watch” may not be an adequate response.
Cherneka Johnson retains undisputed 118lb title
Australia’s Cherneka Johnson retained her undisputed bantamweight championship with a unanimous-decision win over Amanda Galle that was closer than the 99-91, 98-92 and 97-93 scores handed down. The Melbourne-based Johnson (19-2, 8 KOs), who made history by becoming Australia’s first four-belt undisputed champion earlier this year, forced the action from the opening bell, backing Galle up with sustained offense and physicality. But Galle (12-1-1, 1 KO), a Canadian challenger with a background in karate and multiple national titles, remained competitive and resilient in a high-volume fight with loads of two-way action.
Johnson was a deserving winner in defense of her WBO, WBA, WBC and IBF titles at 118lb, but Galle deserved better from the judges.
Caroline Dubois retains WBC lightweight title
Say what you want of tonight’s main event, but there are four women’s world title fights on the undercard worthy of attention. Two of them are already in the books with two still to come.
Caroline Dubois retained her WBC lightweight title on her US debut with a commanding 10-round unanimous decision over Camila Panatta. Dubois (12-0-1, 5 KOs), a 2020 Olympian and one of Britain’s most highly regarded young pros, found her range early and wore her opponent down with steady pressure and pinpoint accuracy, dropping Panatta with a check right hook near the end of the sixth round.
Panatta (8-3-1, 1 KO), an Italian southpaw based in nearby West Palm Beach who has sparred extensively with elite champions like Katie Taylor, kept pressing forward but proved no match for the Londoner, who won by identical scores of 99-90 from the three ringside judges. It marked a third successful title defense for the 24-year-old – the younger sister of British heavyweight Daniel Dubois – who was elevated to full world champion last year after a rapid ascent through the ranks.
Earlier, Yokasta Valle won a bloody majority decision over Yadira Bustillos, retaining her WBC strawweight title by scores of 98-92, 96-94 and 95-95 in a crowd-pleasing, defense-optional affair that saw both women fire off a combined 1,045 punches over 20 blistering minutes. Valle (34-3, 10 KOs), a three-division world champion from Costa Rica and a fixture on most pound-for-pound lists, dictated the rhythm with fast combinations, repeatedly beating her opponent to the punch in the opening rounds.
Bustillos (11-2, 2 KOs), a fast-rising contender with a strong amateur résumé, continued to press through a series of head clashes that left both women bloodied early on, but Valle’s experience and accuracy carried her through the tape.
Preamble
Welcome to Miami, where heavyweight boxing doesn’t come around too often, but has understood the value of theater on the occasions it has.
More than 60 years ago, a brash 22-year-old Cassius Clay strutted into this city as a no-hope challenger and emerged as Muhammad Ali, having forced Sonny Liston to quit on his stool and detonated the sport’s assumptions about who belonged at the top. That fight was a genuine upset, a sporting shock that reshaped boxing history. Tonight’s bout borrows the setting and the symbolism, if not the competitive balance.
Jake Paul v Anthony Joshua exists at the intersection boxing has been circling for decades: the collision of pedigree and platform, résumé and reach, belts and bandwidth. It is being sold unapologetically as a global streaming spectacle – eight heavyweight rounds, backed by a nine-figure investment from Netflix and engineered for maximum virality – and yet it still unfolds inside a ring governed by the same unforgiving rules that have always applied.
Joshua arrives as the sport’s corrective. A former two-time unified heavyweight champion, Olympic gold medalist and one of the era’s most destructive punchers, he is also a fighter in need of recalibration after being stopped by Daniel Dubois in September 2024. At 36, with his long-discussed showdown with Tyson Fury still hovering somewhere on the horizon, this is meant to be a reset: a chance to reassert authority, restore order and remind everyone what a real heavyweight looks like.
Paul, meanwhile, arrives as disruption incarnate. A YouTuber by origin, a boxer by sheer force of will, he has spent the better part of five years daring the sport to take him seriously while compiling a résumé that lives in boxing’s parallel circuit: retired MMA champions, fellow influencers, a faded ex-champion in Julio César Chávez Jr, and last year’s made-for-Netflix bout against a 58-year-old Mike Tyson that drew enormous viewership and equal parts fascination and revulsion. Those events were marketed as boxing, but treated by many within the sport as something else: influencer content dressed up in the patois of prizefighting.
This is different. Or at least, it is meant to be. Joshua outweighs Paul by nearly 30lb, carries years more high-level experience and brings with him the kind of power that has prompted genuine safety concerns throughout fight week. The question is not whether Paul belongs here, but how long he can remain safe if he steps in the pocket and takes chances to win.
So here we are: a true-blue heavyweight, a manufactured spectacle and a sport once again probing the limits of what it will allow in pursuit of relevance and revenue. Whether tonight ends in restoration, rupture or something stranger, the bell will ring, the punches will be real and the consequences will linger long after the stream goes dark.
We’ll have round-by-round updates, key moments and instant reaction from now through the aftermath.
Bryan will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s a quick primer covering the basics of tonight’s event.
Where and when is the fight?
Tonight’s card takes place at the Kaseya Center, the 20,000-seat home of the NBA’s Miami Heat. Ringwalks for the main event between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua are not expected before 10.30pm ET (3.30am GMT).
Where can I watch it?
The broadcast will stream live globally on Netflix starting at 8pm ET (1am GMT) at no additional cost to subscribers. There will be three televised preliminary fights before Paul v Joshua.
The opening five undercard bouts not carried by the Netflix stream will be available free on Most Valuable Promotions’ YouTube channel.
Who else is fighting?
Here’s a look at the running order of tonight’s undercard (in reverse chronological order):
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Alycia Baumgardner v Leila Beaudoin, 12 rounds, for Baumgardner’s WBO, IBF and WBA women’s junior lightweight titles
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Anderson Silva v Tyron Woodley, six rounds, cruiserweights
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Caroline Dubois v Camila Panatta, 10 rounds, for Dubois’ WBC women’s lightweight title
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Cherneka Johnson v Amanda Galle, 10 rounds, for Johnson’s undisputed women’s bantamweight championship
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Yokasta Valle v Yadira Bustillos, 10 rounds, for Valle’s WBC women’s strawweight title
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Avious Griffin v Justin Cardona, eight rounds, welterweights
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Jahmal Harvey v Kevin Cervantes, six rounds, junior lightweights
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Keno Marley v Diarra Davis Jr, four rounds, cruiserweights
What’s at stake?
No titles are on the line in the eight-round heavyweight fight. Joshua outweighed Paul by nearly 30lb at Thursday’s weigh-in, coming in at 243.4lb to Paul’s 216.6lb, a disparity that has fueled safety concerns across the sport. Despite the criticism, the bout is expected to be among the more lucrative in boxing history, with reports suggesting a combined purse of around $184m (£137.4).
