Key events
“Despite being the clear favourite in terms of ranking and prior experience, Sabalenka faces a stern test in Anisimova,” emails Gavriella Epstein-Lightman. “Few can match Sabalenka from the baseline – her pummelling groundstrokes, consistently deep, push many players into perennial defence. Yet Anisimova is one of a select coterie of players who possesses the purity of ballstrike and power off both forehand and backhand wings. She is no counterpuncher and won’t be easily cowed. If Anisimova can hold her nerve, this could be tight.”
“I just hope it’s a good match,” Martina Navratilova says on Sky when asked for her prediction. “But I have to go with Sabalenka – at her best she’s the better player.”
First we’ll hear America the Beautiful, sung by Brittney Spencer. 24,000 fans fall silent. The roof is still shut, which is only adding to the atmosphere.
Sabalenka is now throwing a giant ball about, while doing a good job of ignoring Anisimova, who’s only a few metres away from her. If Sabalenka can see the ball that big when she gets on to court, she’ll be unbeatable. They should be out very shortly.
Do remember you can get in touch with your predictions too. It’s always good to hear from you.
So who wins? Erm, I’m really undecided. Sabalenka has the greater experience; Anisimova has the crowd. You could argue that Sabalenka has the bigger pressure being the world No 1 and defending champ; but there’s also huge pressure on Anisimova to give a better account of herself than she did in the Wimbledon final. But if Sabalenka keeps her emotions in check, she has the edge.
The players are still warming up backstage, both being pulled around on giant resistance bands, so we’ve got time to talk tactics. Sabalenka and Anisimova are two of the biggest ball-strikers in the game – and Anisimova’s two-handed backhand in particular can be devastating – so this will be first-strike tennis, even though Sabalenka has learned in recent years how to throw in some drop shots and forays to the net too. But their fearsome hitting is mixed with mental vulnerabilities. Anisimova can freeze (the Wimbledon final, of course, being the most extreme example) – while Sabalenka can let her emotions boil over. This will most likely come down to who handles the occasion better.
Stat attack. Sabalenka is the first woman to reach the Australian and US Opens finals for three consecutive years since Martina Hingis in 1999, as well as the first to make three major singles finals in a calendar year since Serena Williams in 2016. Anisimova is the youngest woman to reach the Wimbledon and US Open finals in a season since Serena and Venus in 2002.
Anisimova says:
I’ve worked really hard, especially on my mental game and not giving up. When I was at Wimbledon, every single match was a surprise to me. I was shocked with every match that I won. But here it feels more I believe in myself, and I’m able to do it. I think I have really shifted with my attitude.
Sabalenka says:
I’m super excited to give myself another opportunity, another final. If I’ll be able to hold that trophy, it’s going to mean a lot for me. I’ll be just the happiest person on earth probably.
I felt like in that match [against Anisimova] at Wimby, I was doubting a lot my decisions. That was the main thing that was bringing a lot of unforced errors. I feel like I had my opportunities, I didn’t use them. The key for me is going to be just go out there, obviously fight, but trust my decisions and go after my shots.
Road to the final. Not only has Anisimova beaten Swiatek this tournament, she also came back from a set down to defeat another grand slam champion in Naomi Osaka in their semi-final. Sabalenka’s path has been easier, especially after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew before their quarter-final, but she also came from behind in the last four to see off Jessica Pegula, which was a rematch of last year’s final.
Sabalenka
First round def Rebeka Masarova 7-5, 6-1
Second round def Polina Kudermetova 7-6, 6-2
Third round def Leylah Fernandez (31) 6-3, 7-6
Fourth round def Cristina Bucsa 6-1, 6-4
Quarter-final walkover against Marketa Vondrousova
Semi-final def Jessica Pegula (4) 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
Anisimova
First round def Kimberly Birrell 6-3, 6-2
Second round def Maya Joint 7-6, 6-2
Third round def Jaqueline Cristian 6-4, 4-6. 6-2
Fourth round def Beatriz Haddad Maia (18) 6-0, 6-3
Quarter-final def Iga Swiatek (2) 6-4, 6-3
Semi-final def Naomi Osaka (23) 6-7, 7-6, 6-3
Tale of the tape
Sabalenka – Anisimova
27 Age 24
1 Seeding 8
1 World ranking 9
3 Grand slam titles 0
7 Grand slam finals 2
20 Singles titles 3
3 Head-to-head 6
His interview with Anisimova from back in May, in which she talks about the mental health break she took from tennis in 2023, is well worth a look too, if you haven’t already read it:
Meanwhile: I’ve just eaten an obscene amount of sushi and am feeling a little sluggish. So here’s Tumaini’s excellent preview to keep you going while I recover:
Amanda Anisimova was struggling to maintain her composure in the days leading up to the final grand slam tournament of the year. As the American braced herself for her first round match, her high expectations became a source of significant stress. In hindsight, this was nothing out of the ordinary. “I think most players are putting a lot of pressure on themselves and those few days before the tournament are pretty stressful, just the anticipation of it,” she said after reaching round three. “I feel it was natural for me to feel that way.”
However, the circumstances surrounding Anisimova on the eve of the US Open made her situation unique. The last time she appeared at a grand slam, Anisimova was beaten 6-0, 6-0 in the Wimbledon final by Iga Swiatek. Wimbledon had represented a long-awaited breakthrough after years of unfulfilled promise and under most circumstances it would have only signified a positive step forward in her career, but by the end of her excruciating day on Centre Court it was hard not to wonder if such a humiliating moment might completely derail her progress.
For that reason, Anisimova’s handling of those challenges has been nothing short of remarkable. At the next grand slam tournament, her earliest possible opportunity, the 24-year-old has given herself another shot at competing for a grand slam title again as she faces Aryna Sabalenka, the world No 1 and defending champion, on home soil in the US Open final on Saturday.
Anisimova’s talent has never been in doubt. She is one of the cleanest, most destructive ball strikers on the tour, blessed with peerless timing and technique that allows her to take the ball so early, change directions at will and generate immense pace off both ground strokes, particularly her extraordinary two-handed backhand.
Those skills were evident in her last few matches, which have been an exhibition in devastating offensive shotmaking. In her win over Swiatek, she constantly robbed time from the Pole’s offensive weapons. Despite her early nerves a day later against Naomi Osaka, it was remarkable how she turned the match around, dominating another of the biggest hitters in the game from the baseline. Even as they neared 1am after nearly three hours on the court, her hands remained steady during the decisive moments at the end and she never stopped attacking.
You can read the rest here:
Just after the match finished, along came thunder, lightning and torrential rain, just to add to the tension before the women’s final. At least Arthur Ashe has a roof. So this match will feel more like a night match, even though it gets under way at about 4pm in New York.
Already today, Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski have fallen agonisingly short in their attempt to become the first all-British pair since 1903 to win the men’s doubles title. They had three match points in the third set, before being edged out 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 by Spain’s Marcel Granollers and Argentina’s Horacio Zeballos, who also won the French Open title together this year. And look who’s celebrating:
Preamble
Tennis, bloody hell. 56 days ago Amanda Anisimova was whitewashed in the Wimbledon final 6-0, 6-0 by Iga Swiatek as she froze in the headlights in the biggest match of her life. It was the most public and painful of humiliations from which most of us, if put in the same position, would not recover, let alone have the character to return to the tour less than three weeks later as she started her preparations for the US Open.
And now here the 24-year-old is in the final of her home grand slam, having gained the sweetest of revenge against Swiatek in the quarter-finals, and she’ll be fortified by the knowledge she can beat Aryna Sabalenka when it matters, having defeated the Belarusian in three sets in their Wimbledon semi-final. Get the better of Sabalenka again and Anisimova’s redemption story would rank among the greatest in tennis, along with Jana Novotna winning Wimbledon in 1998 after heartbreak five years earlier, Jennifer Capriati going to hell and back before finally becoming a major champion in 2001 and Andre Agassi returning from the tennis wilderness to claim his career slam in 1999. And doing it in New York, not far from where Anisimova was born in New Jersey, would add a shine that not even Broadway could make up.
But Sabalenka is in the slightly curious position of needing to prove herself too, despite being the defending champion, world No 1 and top seed. She’s got her own ghosts of grand slams past to banish, having also let her emotions get the better of her in the crucial moments this year. After losing to Madison Keys in the Australian Open final, Coco Gauff in the French Open final and Anisimova in that Wimbledon semi, this match represents her last chance to end a year of what-ifs with a significant triumph.
So both want their own form of redemption – and Sabalenka probably wants a bit of revenge too. If I could, I’d call the two of them as the US Open champion – Sabalenka arguably deserves a slam for her efforts this year, but who would deny Anisimova such a heartwarming comeback for the ages? – but alas, that’s not possible. So let’s just hope, for both their sakes, that this time these huge hitters can show courage and composure every bit as big as their shots.
The players will arrive at about: 4pm New York time/9pm BST.
In the meantime: here’s a trip down memory lane:
