MLB Best Home Run Bets 7/22
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Jo Adell (LAA) +440, BetRivers
Adell is pretty much a two true outcome player at this point—he hits the ball hard or he strikes out. We think there’s a good chance he connects against Frankie Montas, who has been inconsistent since returning from injury. Montas has allowed 1.5 HR/9 innings since the second half of the 2022 season when he was traded to the Yankees. Adell is 0-for-5 against Montas in his career, but now might be the time for him to break through. He already has a career-high 21 home runs, and Montas is not at his best currently. We set Adell’s line at +405 to hit a HR.
Jazz Chisholm (NYY) +450, BetRivers
Jazz is just 2-for-8 in his career against Max Scherzer, but those two hits were a home run and a triple. While he didn’t perform well in the HR Derby, Jazz remains a solid threat in game action—especially against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .935 OPS and 16 of his 17 home runs. Scherzer is a future Hall-of-Famer, but he’s a 40-year-old pitcher dealing with injuries. Left-handed batters have an .882 OPS against him in limited action this season and have hit 4 of the 5 home runs he’s allowed. Jazz homered off Scherzer less than a month ago at Rogers Centre, and we like the value for him to do it again today. We set Chisholm’s line at +370.
Riley Greene (DET), +500 BetMGM
Greene is usually a solid play when facing a right-handed pitcher, and Mitch Keller has significantly worse splits against left-handed batters. Lefties have a .731 OPS against Keller, compared to just .554 for righties. Despite being overmatched by Paul Skenes yesterday, Greene is still hitting .304 this season, with 23 of his 25 home runs coming against right-handed pitchers. We set Greene’s line at +335 to hit a home run.
