Entering Sunday, the Los Angeles Lakers are still the 3-seed in the West, but that position could be rapidly slipping away. After their win in overtime against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, the Denver Nuggets are just a half-game back of the Lakers. JJ Redick’s squad will be without stars Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves for the remainder of the regular season. The Lakers do get the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC), but then their next three games are all against teams headed to the postseason.
One of those games comes Thursday against the Golden State Warriors, who will get star Stephen Curry back for Sunday’s game against the Houston Rockets (10 p.m. ET, NBC). Curry hasn’t played since Jan. 30, sitting out the past 27 games because of knee issues. In his absence, the Warriors fell from eighth in the West to 10th and will likely be on the road to start the play-in tournament, needing two wins to avoid missing the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.
Elsewhere, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a good chance to increase their control on the top seed in the Western Conference. Their lead was extended to 2½ games with the Spurs’ loss Saturday, and OKC will host the Utah Jazz on Sunday (7 p.m. ET). Utah has lost eight consecutive games and is 3-20 in its past 23 outings.
In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics will host the Toronto Raptors (3:30 p.m. ET) in what ESPN’s Basketball Power Index rates as the seventh-most important game remaining this season. Boston is 2½ games ahead of the New York Knicks for the 2-seed in the East, while Toronto trails the Atlanta Hawks by 1½ games for the 5-seed and is just a half-game ahead of the seventh-place Philadelphia 76ers.
Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:
Jump to a section:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores
Clinching scenarios | Critical remaining games
Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick
Current NBA playoff matchups
Eastern Conference playoffs
1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Toronto Raptors
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks
Eastern Conference play-in
7. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 8. Charlotte Hornets
9. Orlando Magic vs. 10. Miami Heat
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
Western Conference playoffs
1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Houston Rockets
Western Conference play-in
7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. Portland Trail Blazers
9. LA Clippers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
Sunday’s games
Raptors at Celtics, 3:30 p.m. ET
Wizards at Nets, 3:30 p.m. ET
Suns at Bulls, 3:30 p.m. ET
Grizzlies at Bucks, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pacers at Cavaliers, 6 p.m. ET
Hornets at Timberwolves, 7 p.m. ET
Magic at Pelicans, 7 p.m. ET
Jazz at Thunder, 7 p.m. ET
Lakers at Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Clippers at Kings, 9 p.m. ET
Rockets at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET (NBC)
Saturday’s scores
Heat 152, Wizards 136
Nuggets 136, Spurs 134 (OT)
Pistons 116, 76ers 93
Most important games left
Clinching scenarios
The Minnesota Timberwolves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss by the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns are locked into the play-in tournament with a loss and a win by the Timberwolves.
Projected end-of-season standings
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.
Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Clippers’ own pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Orlando Magic will send their pick to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight. The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.
